Limits of Inference

Overdiagnosis: why scientists and statisticians think we should test fewer people

A targeted testing strategy is the gold standard when screening for disease. This is the best practice for a reason.

Jan 4, 2021

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Overdiagnosis: false-negatives and sensitivity of RT-PCR [1]

why false negatives aren't as much of a problem in practice

Jan 4, 2021

Overdiagnosis: technical versus clinical false positive [2]

Whether or not a false positive is an error can depend on who you ask

Jan 4, 2021

Overdiagnosis: how early detection changes the definition of disease itself [3]

what does it mean when disease incidence is uncorrelated with mortality. can you have cancer even if you will never be sick?

Jan 4, 2021

December 2020

The best and worst of public health

being healthy means saying yes to life

Dec 11, 2020

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November 2020

Understanding Risk From Viral Disease

Infection is a risk factor, not a disease itself

Nov 13, 2020

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October 2020

Science does not solve our problems. People do.

when we look only to scientists for solutions, we will come up short

Oct 28, 2020

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Defining Success: Zero-risk is not an option

We still do have to learn to live with all viruses

Oct 28, 2020

September 2020

What is a probabilistic value proposition?

Imagine if Gmail delivered 95% of emails to the correct person’s inbox and sent the other 5% to a different person’s inbox.

Sep 22, 2020

Theory over Data

how scientific reasoning and logic failed during a public health crisis

Sep 9, 2020

May 2020

Debunking the myth of purely ‘data-driven’ decisions

data is a great tool, some expect too much of it

May 27, 2020

April 2020