Limits of Inference

Limits of Inference

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Understanding Risk From Viral Disease
Infection is a risk factor, not a disease itself
Science does not solve our problems. People do.
when we look only to scientists for solutions, we will come up short
Overdiagnosis: why scientists and statisticians think we should test fewer people
A targeted testing strategy is the gold standard when screening for disease. This is the best practice for a reason.
The best and worst of public health
being healthy means saying yes to life
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Overdiagnosis: false-negatives and sensitivity of RT-PCR [1]
why false negatives aren't as much of a problem in practice
Overdiagnosis: how early detection changes the definition of disease itself [3]
what does it mean when disease incidence is uncorrelated with mortality. can you have cancer even if you will never be sick?
Defining Success: Zero-risk is not an option
We still do have to learn to live with all viruses
Overdiagnosis: technical versus clinical false positive [2]
Whether or not a false positive is an error can depend on who you ask
Debunking the myth of purely ‘data-driven’ decisions
data is a great tool, some expect too much of it
Theory over Data
how scientific reasoning and logic failed during a public health crisis
What is inductive reasoning?
Why do we put so much faith in a fallible process?
How Science Became Information Engineering
The noise is sometimes the signal
© 2025 Clare Gollnick
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